Forget the 50% chance that your marriage will end. Your risk of divorce is more complex than a simple coin toss.
Relationships are as unique as the individuals in them.
Some couples laugh a lot while others are more serious. Some relationships are full of affection while others are indifferent. Some couples are best friends while others live separate lives.
All of these factors and much more can influence whether or not a marriage will last. And while many marriages do end in divorce, even more remain strong.
In fact, as people have become more selective and are choosing to marry later, the divorce rate is actually declining.
There are no reliable statistics on the prevalence of divorce within the first year of marriage.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , data from 2011-2015 suggests that about 22% of first marriages end within the first five years due to divorce, separation, or death.
According to research from 2013 , these are some of the most common reasons for divorce:
One statistic that casually gets tossed around is the 50% divorce rate myth. This information has been widely misinterpreted and misreported.
This particular divorce statistic is based on projections from the 1970s when divorces were spiking.
But the truth is that divorce rates have been going down for decades, and the risk of divorce significantly differs according to age, race, socioeconomic levels, and a variety of other factors.
Here are some real statistics on marriage and divorce.
In 2019, divorce rates reached the lowest rates we’ve seen in 50 years.
For every 1,000 marriages in 2019, only 7.6 resulted in divorce, according to the American Community Survey data from the Census Bureau.
According to the Pew Research Center, among adults ages 25 to 39, the divorce rate dropped from 30 per 1,000 married individuals in 1990 to 24 in 2015.
This decline is credited at least in part to younger generations being more selective and waiting longer to get married.
Though the divorce rate is decreasing for younger people, it’s roughly doubled among U.S. adults ages 50 and older since the 1990s.
In 2015, 10 in every 1,000 married persons 50 and older got divorced. In 1990, this number was 5.
One study from 2020 found that partners high in neuroticism experience lower levels of marital satisfaction. Neuroticism is a personality trait linked to an increase in negative emotions, including:
In contrast, couples high in carefulness or diligence are more satisfied with their marital life.
The lockdowns and financial and emotional stress of the COVID-19 pandemic strengthened some marriages and weakened others.
According to the 2021 American Family Survey, 42% of married/cohabiting adults say the pandemic deepened their commitment to their marriage/relationship.
12% said it made them question the strength of their marriage/relationship.
Getting married can come with the risk of getting divorced, and this risk may increase with time—to a point. By the time people reach their mid-50s, many have experienced at least one divorce.
But as people reach their 60s, those who are still married may continue in that stability.
Among adults 20 and older, 34% of women and 33% of men who’ve ever been married have been divorced. Among those ages 55 to 64, that number is about 43% for both sexes.
This number drops to 39% among adults 65 to 74 and 24% among those 75 and older.